W5_TRI_ Paper Topic Non Compensatory Model

1.      Problem recognition, definition and evaluation

The initial stage of 2,500 words paper is to select the paper topic. The previous analysis was discussing about selecting alternatives using Force Field Analysis. Now, the other decision making tool will be applied to evaluate some alternates of paper topics.

2.      Development of the feasible alternatives

There are two interesting topics that have been submitted to Mentor, they are:

Condition 1: There is a need to compare and analyze between country monetary conditions and cost of oil and gas facilities project.

Topic 1: Use CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) to analyze the relationship

Condition 2: Lesson learnt from completed project that was over budget due to external factors (period 2008-2010).

Topic 2:  Create better contingency and include external factors into cost estimation

3.      Development of the outcomes

The Non Compensatory Model is used to analyze each alternative topic. The outcome will compare the result between Force Field Analysis and this Non Compensatory Model.

4.      Selection of criteria

The criteria or attributes that will be used in choosing the topic are: Complexity, Effort, Benefit, Confidentiality, and Time Consuming.

5.      Analysis and Comparison of criteria

The first step in compensatory model is to gather summary information for choice of a topic. The table below shows the attributes when applied to the alternatives.

Next, comparing the attributes importance use paired comparison in ordinal rangking.

And then, determining the most preferred alternatives use Lexicography model. This is particularly suitable for decision situation in which a single attribute is judged to be more important than all attributes.

6.      Selection of the preferred alternative

Finally, the lexicography table shows the alternatives and its total rank as follows:

Alternatives	Total Rank
1. CAPM	5
2. Contingency	5

Surprisingly, total rank for both alternatives is the same value. Thus, this can’t be decided if only using this decision method as the only one tool.

7.      Performance monitoring and post-evaluation of results

Although the analysis of Non Compensatory model resulted that there is an equal preference between topic 1 and topic 2, the analysis using Force Field was shown that Topic 1 is more suitable to be worked out than Topic 2. To sum up, it is important to use more than 1 methods of decision tool to benchmark the result and give more comprehensive analysis.

References:

·       Brassard, M and Ritter, D (2010), The Memory Jogger (2nd Edition),Canada, GOAL/QPC

·       Purdue online writing lab. Reference List: Electronic Sources (Web Publications). Retrieved from : http://owl.english.purdue.edu/owl/resource/560/10/

·       Sullivan, W.G., Wicks, E. M., & Koelling, C. P. (2011). Engineering Economy, (p.557-p.560)