W2_TRI_ Paper Topic-1 Force Analysis

1.      Problem recognition, definition and evaluation

The 2,500 words paper is the critical path which is therefore needed to put more concerns on that. The initial stage is to select the paper topic. So, the problem is how to evaluate some alternates of paper topics.

2.      Development of the feasible alternatives

There are two interesting topics that have been submitted to Mentor, they are:

Condition 1: There is a need to compare and analyze between country monetary conditions and cost of oil and gas facilities project.

Topic 1: Use CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) to analyze the relationship

Condition 2: Lesson learnt from completed project that was over budget due to external factors (period 2008-2010).

Topic 2:  Create better contingency and include external factors into cost estimation

For this blog posting, the analysis is for the first topic.

3.      Development of the outcomes

The topics are analyzed using Force Field Analysis that was developed by Kurt Lewin (1951). As one of powerful tools for Decision Making, it shows the different forces for the issue and how to increase the possibility of the success of the issue we analyzed.  It helps people make a decision by analyzing the forces for and against a change, and it helps they communicate the reasoning behind their decision

4.      Selection of criteria

After analyzing two possible topics, the result is determined by the topic that has highest positive score and has less effort in reducing the restrain force. That will be in the blog posting on Week 4.

5.      Analysis for first option

The basic questions in evaluating the two topics are:

1. Can the paper be done using the selected topic as per given schedule?

2. If the study paper is finished, what are the impacts for company and society?

By assigning a score to each force, from, say, 1 (weak) to 5 (strong), and then add up the scores for each column (positive/for and negative/against),the result of this analysis as shown in table below:

  

From the table, the positive driver is more than negative drivers. The main benefits from topic 1 are that the study might be further used as reference in linking between monetary conditions (not only currency volatility) and facilities project cost. Meanwhile, the time constraints and limited data of cost index become the strong points in negative drivers.

Although the deviation between positive and negative drivers is only two levels, it describes that the first topic is viable to be selected as topic of 2,500 words paper.

6.      Selection of the preferred alternative

The paper selection summary according to Force Field Analysis might be on blog Week 4.

7.      Performance monitoring and post-evaluation of results

The performance monitoring and post evaluation of results might be on blog week 4 and 5. However, the analysis using other decision making tool will give a good benchmark for the selected option we had.

References:

·         Brassard, M and Ritter, D (2010), The Memory Jogger (2nd Edition),Canada, GOAL/QPC

·        James Manktelow, CEO Mind Tools, “Force Field Analysis”, Retrieved from http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm

·        ODI (January 2009), “Management Techniques: Force Field Analysis”, Retrieved from http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/details.asp?id=5218&title=force-field-analysis-decision-maker