W4_TRI_ Paper Topic Final Selection Force Analysis

1.      Problem recognition, definition and evaluation

The 2,500 words paper is the critical path which is therefore needed to put more concerns on that. The initial stage is to select the paper topic. So, the problem is how to evaluate some alternates of paper topics.

After performed Force Field Analysis to two options, the next step is to analyze the result and select the paper topic.

2.      Development of the feasible alternatives

There are two interesting topics that have been submitted to Mentor, they are:

Condition 1: There is a need to compare and analyze between country monetary conditions and cost of oil and gas facilities project.

Topic 1: Use CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) to analyze the relationship

Condition 2: Lesson learnt from completed project that was over budget due to external factors (period 2008-2010).

Topic 2:  Create better contingency and include external factors into cost estimation

The first topic was analyzed in the W2 blog, while the second one was analyzed in the W3 blog.

3.      Development of the outcomes

The Force Field Analysis has been used to analyze each topic. The outcome will compare the result between positive and negative driving forces for each topic.

4.      Selection of criteria

The criteria that will be used in choosing the topic are:

A. Higher positive drive

B. Lower negative drive

C. The Difference between positive to negative driver is higher

5.      Analysis and comparison of the alternatives

The result from each topic analysis is summarized in below graph:

It is clearly shown that the first topic have more positive drivers than the second one. On the other side, the first topic has also more negative drivers than the second one. But, the first topic still has more deviation value than the second one. It means that Topic 1 has more positive drivers to be worked out on the paper and then implemented to the company and the society.

6.      Selection of the preferred alternative

After comparing two options, Topic 1 is selected as main paper topic. Meanwhile, Topic 2 will become the alternative topic as back up.

7.      Performance monitoring and post-evaluation of results

The similar analysis using other decision making tool will give a good benchmark for the current selected option. The topic for Week 5 blog posting will be therefore about decision tree using non-compensatory model.

However, the paper and its associated works must be started as early as possible, since the paper assignment is the critical path.

References:

·         Brassard, M and Ritter, D (2010), The Memory Jogger (2nd Edition),Canada, GOAL/QPC

·        James Manktelow, CEO Mind Tools, “Force Field Analysis”, Retrieved from http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTED_06.htm

·       ODI (January 2009), “Management Techniques: Force Field Analysis”, Retrieved from http://www.odi.org.uk/resources/details.asp?id=5218&title=force-field-analysis-decision-maker