W6_INDRA_Vessel Price Estimating

1.            Problem Recognition, Definition and Evaluation

This year we will build Small Tanker 10,000 DWT. The basic problem for Small Tanker is no market publication. Shipping business publication like Drewry or Clarksons only give information in size range 37,000 DWT - 300,000 DWT

Problem Statement

            Estimate the vessel price of 10,000 DWT Oil Tanker in the end of 2012

2.            Develop of  the Feasible Alternatives

There are 3 estimating method :

a.     Indexes

b.    Unit Technique

c.     Factor Technique

3.            Develop the outcomes for each alternative

a.     Indexes

The vessel price can be estimate use this equation :

Figure 1 : Indexes estimate equation

In 2009, we buy the same size Tanker for 15,500,000 US$. Tanker Index 2009 is 144.

By the data above, we may estimate the vessel price in 2012 with Tanker Index 151 :

Cn = 15,500,000 US$  x (147/144) = 16, 253,472 US$

b.    Unit Technique

Using a per unit factor that can be estimated effectively, the vessel price can be estimate as below :

Table 1 : Unit Technique Estimate

c.     Factor Technique

The vessel price estimated using this equation

Figure 2 : Factor Technique estimate equation

For size range 3,000 – 20,000 DWT, there are some fix cost as below :

-       Construction cost (include manpower) is 4,000,000 US$

-       Electric, Accommodation & Safety System is 3,650,000 US$

-       Design & Inspection is 1,000,000 US$

The unit based price can be describe as below :

-       Hull Plate : 420 US$ / DWT

-       Main Engine : 780 US$ / kW

For 10,000 DWT Oil Tanker using 6,000 kW Main Engine we may calculate the price as below :

C    =          4,000,000 + 3,650,000 + 1,000,000 + (10,000 x 420) + (6,000 x 780)

      =          17,530,000 US$

4.            Selection of the acceptable criteria.

The criterion is legal aspect. The price estimate will be use as parameter to the bidding

5.            Analysis and comparison of the alternatives

Indexes method use new building price index from international publication. The problem is the publication only gives information in size range 37,000 DWT - 300,000 DWT. It means the index value do not consider the Small Tanker price average

Unit Technique based on unit price information. The price is customized to the vessel size and specification.

Factor Technique can’t be used because  the information based on informal communication with shipyard. No formal document can use as the support

6.            Select the preferred alternative

The preferred method is unit technique. We use vessel price 16,750,000 US$

7.            Performance Monitoring & Post Evaluation of Result

The effectiveness of this method can be measured by compare the price estimate and actual offering from bid participant

Reference

i.        Cost Estimation Techniques, Retrieved from:

oz.nthu.edu.tw/~d897805/ee/chap%203-.pdf

ii.       A Practical Approach for Ship Construction Cost Estimating, Retrieved from:

          certh-india.com/.../proteusengineeringcompitp

iii.      Integrating Cost Estimating with The Ship Design Process, Retrieved from: 

 http://www.sparusa.com/Presentations/Integrating%20Cost%20Estimating%20with%20ship%20design%20process.pdf