W5_Mohammed_What the time needed for creating W6, W16, W26 Blogs

Problem definition

What is the daily time required to create my week 6, 16, 26 Blogs?. I’m here applying the Learning Curve Theory in a reference to my W1, 2, 3, 4 blog, so I can predict how it will take me for my W6, W16, W26 blog posting?. This exercise was done before in my previous class, however here I update it and modified it to my current blogs activates. 

Development of the feasible alternatives

A. Time for W6

B. Time for W16

C. Time for W26

Develop the outcomes for each alternative

How much time would be required to produce all the W6, W, 16, & W26 Blogs, in general learning Curve will generate several key benefits as follows:
-Improved capacity planning

-Improved Costing

-Changes in Product/Process Design

Accepted Criteria

The learning curve is an analytical tool that can be used to estimate the rate at which cumulative experience allows workers to do tasks faster and with less cost.  Operations managers use learning curves to estimate how much the repetitions of a task will enable them to reduce the amount of resources required to accomplish the task.  A learning curve is defined by an equation that contains the rate of improvement (i.e., reduction in costs or reduction in time taken) in performing a task as a function of the cumulative repetitions of the task.

As the conclusion of my blog per the best case worst case, most likely scenario graph, taking a percentage of 90% as the most likely case, I shall spent not less than 120 min on daily basis to do a quality blog. This amount will be the base of the calculation of this analysis, considering that 120 min is the average daily rate needed to create my first blog “W1”, with a 90% improvement or (learning rate). This analysis will use the spread sheet analysis.

Analysis and comparison of the alternatives

K =	120 min	The number of input resources (min/day) needed to produce the first Blog
s =	90%	The learning Curve slope
n =	-0.152	The learning Curve exponent
Blog Number	Unit min/daily	Cumulative Total	Cumulative Average
1	120.00	120.00	120.00
2	108.00	228.00	114.00
3	101.54	329.54	109.85
4	97.20	426.74	106.69
5	93.96	520.70	104.14
6	91.39	612.09	102.02
7	89.27	701.37	100.20
8	87.48	788.85	98.61
9	85.93	874.77	97.20
10	84.56	959.34	95.93
11	83.35	1042.68	94.79
12	82.25	1124.93	93.74
13	81.26	1206.19	92.78
14	80.35	1286.54	91.90
15	79.51	1366.05	91.07
16	78.73	1444.78	90.30
17	78.01	1522.79	89.58
18	77.33	1600.12	88.90
19	76.70	1676.82	88.25
20	76.11	1752.93	87.65
21	75.54	1828.48	87.07
22	75.01	1903.49	86.52
23	74.51	1977.99	86.00
24	74.03	2052.02	85.50
25	73.57	2125.59	85.02
26	73.13	2198.72	84.57

Selection of the preferred alternatives

As per the best Learning Curve Theory shown in the above graph, assuming 90% learning curve, it’s indicated that I will need about 91.39 min/daily to complete the Blog of Week 6 and 78.73 min for Blog of Week 16 and finally 73.13 min for Blog of Week 26.

Performance monitoring and the post evaluation of results

I will continue monitor the time needed to create such a good blog, so I can determine if it’s matching my analysis or not.

Conclusion

The learning Curve theory, gives a clear prediction to what time needed to perform a task. In my case above that I will need about 91.39 min/daily to complete the Blog of Week 6 and 78.73 min for Blog of Week 16 and finally 73.13 min for Blog of Week 26.

References

i.  Sullivan, G. William, Wicks, Elin M & Koelling, C. Patrick (2012). Engineering Economic 15th Edition: Chapter 3 Learning Curve Theory, pp. 86-89.

ii. Morgan Swink, Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain - Technical Supplement 3, Learning Curves, Swink, Broad Graduate School of Management, McGraw-Hill/Irwin, Michigan State University.

iii. AACEI Kristal Team, W5_MR_What is the time needed for creating W10, W20, W30 Blogs, http:/ Kristal2011aace.wordpress.com/